Living in denial

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Karjalan
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Living in denial

Post by Karjalan » 20 May 2010, 09:49

An interesting article about "denialism" and how/why people become so defiant and continue to deny in the face of overwhelming actual evidence.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg2 ... tml?page=1
How to be a denialist
Martin McKee, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine who also studies denial, has identified six tactics that all denialist movements use. "I'm not suggesting there is a manual somewhere, but one can see these elements, to varying degrees, in many settings," he says (The European Journal of Public Health, vol 19, p 2).

1. Allege that there's a conspiracy. Claim that scientific consensus has arisen through collusion rather than the accumulation of evidence.
2. Use fake experts to support your story. "Denial always starts with a cadre of pseudo-experts with some credentials that create a facade of credibility," says Seth Kalichman of the University of Connecticut.
3. Cherry-pick the evidence: trumpet whatever appears to support your case and ignore or rubbish the rest. Carry on trotting out supportive evidence even after it has been discredited.
4. Create impossible standards for your opponents. Claim that the existing evidence is not good enough and demand more. If your opponent comes up with evidence you have demanded, move the goalposts.
5. Use logical fallacies. Hitler opposed smoking, so anti-smoking measures are Nazi. Deliberately misrepresent the scientific consensus and then knock down your straw man.
6. Manufacture doubt. Falsely portray scientists as so divided that basing policy on their advice would be premature. Insist "both sides" must be heard and cry censorship when "dissenting" arguments or experts are rejected.
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Mitra
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Re: Living in denial

Post by Mitra » 20 May 2010, 11:18

hmmm. Global warming?
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Cartollomew
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Re: Living in denial

Post by Cartollomew » 20 May 2010, 13:34

Denialism often smacks of authoritarianism too - denialists are often either classic auth followers or social dominators (those who manipulate the followers). Fear is an oft used mechanism - fear of conspiracy, leftists, corporations etc etc. Anything that threatens the status quo.

Very big ebook, but well worth a read:
http://home.cc.umanitoba.ca/~altemey/

It very nicely spells out the research performed over almost 30 years by a psych professor relating specifically to authoritarianism.
Who do you think you are? If you'd stopped winning, you could have been the Biggest Loser, if you gave up, you could have been a Survivor, if you'd stopped reading Orwell, you could have been on Big Brother!

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Re: Living in denial

Post by Lellybaby » 20 May 2010, 13:49

You know what they say.... Denial aint just a river in Egypt.
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Juke a DK/Warrior, Die Anyway ._.

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Re: Living in denial

Post by Mitra » 20 May 2010, 13:59

Lellybaby wrote:You know what they say.... Denial aint just a river in Egypt.

... it's also a river in Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo
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Re: Living in denial

Post by Cartollomew » 20 May 2010, 14:54

Mitra wrote:
Lellybaby wrote:You know what they say.... Denial aint just a river in Egypt.

... it's also a river in Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo
NO IT ISN'T. THAT'S JUST SOMETHING THAT THE UN WOULD HAVE YOU BELIEVE.
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Re: Living in denial

Post by Mitra » 20 May 2010, 19:04

I reckon putting your democratic or peoples in your countries name is living in denial.
"Life is no Nintendo game / But you lied again / Now you get to watch her leave / Out the window / Guess that's why they call it window pane" -Eminem 'Love the way you lie' - Award for Excellence in Puns in the medium of Rap 2010

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Re: Living in denial

Post by Karjalan » 20 May 2010, 21:29

Mitra wrote:hmmm. Global warming?
Not sure why the question mark.

If you'd like to see an unbiased series about all the climate change hu ha then I recommend http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52KLGqDSAjo It's 8 parts long, but quite informative.

Yes we are aware that Al Gore exaggerated.

In a nutshell, from what we have learned from ice core samples (telling us of atmospheric conditions and temperatures for 100's of millions of years) 2 things effect temperature more than anything else... the power radiating from the Sun, and the carbon dioxide levels... If you want to see global warming in overdrive, look into Venus, our "sister planet" who has 94% CO2 atmosphere and 900 degrees surface temperature...
But regardless, the main real "evidence" that people against global warming had was that the sun was producing more energy over the last 10 years (which it was) and thus gave the "illusion" of global warming. In reality the sun was in it's "summer" period over the last 11 years (it has 11 year seasons) where it does put out more energy than the other 50% of the time (sun winter >.>).
The problem is, that the sun has been putting out less overall energy this entire century than the last few hundred years... however the global water temperatures have risen over 1 degree (which is a lot). The main problem is that the problem with the whole polar caps melting thing is exponential. That is to say that the polar caps are hard and shiny, and they therefore reflect the majority of sunlight. The liquid water on the other hand ABSORBS the sunlight... as the temperature rises, the frozen water melts, there is more liquid water to absorb sunlight and less frozen water to reflect it, thus exponential warming.

I recommend watching potholer's video's on the subject though. I may have inadvertently plagiarised some of his info.



[edit]

Sunspots are how we measure the suns energy, and these have been spotted (pun totally intended) since the telescopes first became fashionable (1600's, galilo etc.). So we know how "powerful" the sun is at any given time by looking at past astronomers and sun gazing scientists recordings. The spots are formed, ironically, because that particular area on the surface of the sun is cold.... but for that to happen, mini magnetic "poles" moving around the sun help guide the intense heat/energy away from the surface. It inhibits convection and the surface is cooled while the atmosphere (yeah the sun has an atmosphere) heats up and a band of energy forms a "coronal loop"... also, they are usually where the dangerous sun flares and Coronal Mass Ejections come from... Things to know for when we colonise the solar system and need space weather forecasting ^.^
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Re: Living in denial

Post by Mitra » 20 May 2010, 23:39

<-- BSc. (physics)
Loved my Isotope science units almost stuck with physics as a career because of it. When I had it shown to me that we could measure and correlate lead levels in Antarctic ice to currency production (based on tax/treasury records) in the Roman empire it occurred to me that denying that the current level of industrialisation would not have an effect (magnitudes aside for now) on the environment was 1. Wrong and 2. A stupid position to argue from.

And as we are now entering a new solar cycle if we continue to see increasing or steady temperatures I predict that we will see big oil straw men spouting 2 words to the press - Lag effect.

RE: "?"
I'm bad at expressing myself
it was a "global warming people...have a think about it..." question mark
it should have really been "The oil companies response to global warming"
"Life is no Nintendo game / But you lied again / Now you get to watch her leave / Out the window / Guess that's why they call it window pane" -Eminem 'Love the way you lie' - Award for Excellence in Puns in the medium of Rap 2010

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Re: Living in denial

Post by Karjalan » 21 May 2010, 00:24

Ahhh ok. Cool, cool.
It's quite interesting that we have an example of what happens if the planet gets too hot one step closer into the sun, then we have an example of what happens if our planet gets too cold and the core freezes one step away from the sun. Lesson is, don't be a small planet... and don't let you're atmosphere get overrun with the wrong kind of gasses. Praise Zeus for the small planet that collided with earth, giving us a second core, increasing our mass, and giving us the moon... Without it we would just be another Mars.

Pro, I'm looking at perusing BSc Physics and pushing on to astronomy soon, however I haven't really done any physics apart from that broad science subject in Highs-cool, which just loosely covered everything... and I never did Calculus... So basically I'd be starting from scratch >.>
How intense is it? Like, should one do night-schooling before engaging in the University arena? I was talking to some Astrophysicists that come into my work, they were talking about the kind of hell year 2 (physics) and quantum physics was. It sounded pretty intimidating.
"2+2 is 4"
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Karjalan
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Re: Living in denial

Post by Karjalan » 21 May 2010, 00:27

Lellybaby wrote:You know what they say.... Denial aint just a river in Egypt.
Man that's the sort of thing my Mum would say.... but then she's pretty hip for an older lady? chick? lesbian? man? hippy!.... You're cool with me lel :D
"2+2 is 4"
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Mitra
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Re: Living in denial

Post by Mitra » 21 May 2010, 01:23

@ Karj: I didn't do year 12 calc and struggled because of it. Do a course beforehand if you can or you'll chase your tail all first year. Physics is all applied math

2nd year is hell as the calculas steps up again,and if you can't understand/accept quantum concepts "i'm a wave" "i'm a particle" "i'm a zombie cat in a box" "i passed through an infinite barrier" "by measuring me you changed me" then quantum will make you tear your hair out

A few recommendations I'd make: learn a bit of matlab/mathematica/maple/the math scripting language your uni uses for coursework
and bookmark this site
"Life is no Nintendo game / But you lied again / Now you get to watch her leave / Out the window / Guess that's why they call it window pane" -Eminem 'Love the way you lie' - Award for Excellence in Puns in the medium of Rap 2010

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Re: Living in denial

Post by Karjalan » 11 Jun 2010, 23:53

Image
"2+2 is 4"
Barney, the Dinosaur

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Cartollomew
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Re: Living in denial

Post by Cartollomew » 12 Jun 2010, 00:48

Yeh, that's pretty much my attitude (rather, the reverse).

My main issue with the current approach is that there are a lot of unscrupulous people coining it in with "green" initiatives/ideas/products that aren't actually very constructive.

Such is the nature of people, I guess.
Who do you think you are? If you'd stopped winning, you could have been the Biggest Loser, if you gave up, you could have been a Survivor, if you'd stopped reading Orwell, you could have been on Big Brother!

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Re: Living in denial

Post by Karjalan » 14 Jun 2010, 11:25

Image

Just for extra lols... I remember hearing a clip about a fox news reporter filming some snow fall in winter saying "this seems to rather contradict Al Gores laughable theory of global warming". >.<
"2+2 is 4"
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